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Saturday, October 4, 2014

Jean-Claude Trichet : The future of Europe

To understand what is happening in Europe, one has to fully grasp the historical ambition of the Europeans. Sixty-four years ago, when Robert Schuman, inspired by Jean Monnet, called for the formation of the European Coal and Steel Community, work began on creating a voluntary union between sovereign states that wanted peace, stability and prosperity on the Continent. Such a union had never been attempted before in peacetime.
     Seen from inside Europe, it is only natural that we pursued this extraordinary and bold endeavor. The idea has deep historical roots, going back to the Roman Empire. And, after four devastating wars on the Continent over the last two centuries, we have reinforced the will to ensure peace and friendship between former enemies. 
     Seen from outside -- from Asia or the U.S., for instance -- the Europeans are often perceived as incredibly audacious. Since there is no historical precedent for such undertakings as the European Union and the single currency, it is understandable if outsiders consider these projects extremely fragile.
     Indeed, when the global financial crisis hit advanced economies, many external observers predicted that the euro would be terminated and the euro area would be dismantled. These observers were subsequently astonished to see that the euro and the eurozone proved remarkably resilient.
     The currency has maintained its credibility and creditworthiness despite the difficult circumstances. Paradoxically, even at a time when many predicted the end of the euro, its value against the U.S. dollar remained constantly higher than $1.17 -- the level at its inception in 1999. The main complaint in the euro area was that it was too strong!
     Predictions of the end of the eurozone proved equally wrong. Not only did the 15 states that were members before the crisis, including Greece, remain so, but three new countries later joined: Slovakia, Estonia and Latvia. We will have the 19th member, with the entry of Lithuania, next January.
I called for progress in European integration by enhancing European institutions in a speech on June 2, 2011 at the ceremony to receive Charlemagne Prize in Aachen. (Fondation of the Carlemagne Prize) © Karlspreisstuftung-Andreas Herrmann 


In 2011, I was awarded the Charlemagne Prize, an honor that recognizes and encourages contributions to European unity. All the members of the Governing Council and the entire staff of the European Central Bank were rewarded for their collective action in the crisis. Receiving this honor is as impressive as it is demanding, in terms of expectations for your future actions. Essentially, you are getting into the "hall of fame" of European personalities.
     The award is European, but the foundation is German. I was particularly moved because the foundation recognized that the ECB had been an anchor of stability for Europe. This was at a time when there was a public debate in Germany over the legitimacy of some ECB decisions, including the purchase of government bonds.
     In my acceptance speech, given June 2 in the western German city of Aachen, I took the opportunity to make two proposals.
     First, I floated the idea that we should strengthen the executive body of the euro area by establishing a European ministry of finance and a European finance minister with important responsibilities. Second, I proposed that when the economic and financial stability of the area is at stake due to conditions in a particular state, European institutions should be able to make decisions that would apply directly to that country.
Parliamentary democracy
Since then, along that line of thought, I have suggested that in totally exceptional cases, the European Parliament would be the ultimate arbitrator when an individual state challenges the economic and fiscal recommendations of the European Commission and the decisions of the Council. This would be effective and democratic. I call this concept "activation of an economic and fiscal federation by exception."
    This is one idea on top of several very good proposals put forth by the presidents of four institutions -- the European Council, the European Commission, the ECB and the Eurogroup -- in a report presented by Herman Van Rompuy, titled "Towards a genuine Economic and Monetary Union." I strongly believe that to convincingly reinforce economic, fiscal and financial governance -- which is necessary to make the euro area a full success in terms of growth and jobs -- we must make it more democratically legitimate. The European Parliament is irreplaceable in this regard.
     In the European Parliament elections this past May, traditional parties, both right and left, had relatively mediocre results in many countries. Nevertheless, the main pro-European parties retained prominent positions. The European People's Party won 29% of seats, the Alliance of Socialists and Democrats took 25%, the Alliance of Liberals and Democrats for Europe garnered 9% and the Greens/European Free Alliance won 7%. This means around 70% of the assembly is occupied by political parties in favor of European integration. Even though the predictably poor showing by the governing parties led to a significant rise of anti-European parties on the right and left, I have no doubt that the new parliament will remain a solid anchor for European integration.
     To my mind, it is essential that the pro-European governing parties do their utmost to ensure that the integration project proceeds. I think that the regionwide democratic legitimacy rests with the European Parliament. A good example is that, in appointing former Luxembourg Prime Minister Jean-Claude Juncker as president of the European Commission, the will of the European Parliament overrode that of a number of individual governments and of the European Council itself. I consider this a very significant and symbolic start of effective parliamentary democracy at the pan-European level.
     European integration, as a historical construction, is not yet complete. Europe will have to go further, not only in the direction of economic, fiscal and financial integration but also toward closer coordination in security, defense and foreign policy. The European Union has shown a very mediocre diplomatic capacity when confronted with the problems in Ukraine, the Middle East and Africa. This is abnormal. Rectifying it will require further efforts toward unity and revisions to the EU treaty. Some may argue that the time is not ripe for such significant moves, but I am convinced they are necessary.
Activating economies
The debt crisis totally upended the situation in the region. Germany was called the "sick man of Europe" during the first half of my eight years as ECB president! The present success of the German economy is remarkable when you consider that it had enormous difficulties at the inception of the euro 15 years ago. The country restored its competitiveness thanks to the structural reforms decided by the government of Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder and pursued by Angela Merkel, along with the general moderation in wages and costs since the start of the euro.
     German Chancellor Merkel is charming in bilateral talks. Her advanced scientific education helps her immediately understand complex situations. She is a seasoned politician, capable of staying calm and composed in any circumstance while being very firm. My relationship with her was positive as well as complex, because I often urged her to make decisions faster than her political constraints would permit.
     As for the current situation, I think that market forces should and will activate more domestic demand -- consumption and investment -- in a highly competitive economy that has abundant savings, ample private capital and the lowest interest rates in Europe. This is the case in Germany; it also applies to other European economies that have significant current-account surpluses. This activation would also benefit the euro area as a whole, as it would help to foster growth and job creation, narrow imbalances in competitiveness between states and contribute to increasing, in the medium term, the average level of inflation, to put it closer to our definition of price stability.
     Some European countries are still in the process of recovering after necessary but difficult adjustments. Still, the five troubled countries for which the ECB intervened to buy government bonds -- Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain and Italy -- have all significantly improved their overall performance. Their consolidated current-account balance, for instance, moved from a huge deficit of between 8% and 9% of their gross domestic product in 2008 and 2009 to a slight surplus today.
     France was more competitive than Germany when the euro was launched. Today, she has three major problems. First, the economy's structural rigidities are still excessive in goods, services and labor markets. Second, it has abnormally high public spending and budget deficits as a proportion of GDP. And third, its unit labor costs are too high.
     The main political parties in France now accept this diagnosis. Previously, they were in denial. This new consensus is not enough, but it is a necessary condition to proceed. My advice is to speed up structural reforms, particularly in the labor market, to accelerate the reduction in public spending and to embark on a long-term strategy of "competitive stability" to moderate the labor costs. That strategy should be bipartisan, like the "competitive disinflation" strategy pursued in the 1980s.
Jean-Claude Trichet is former president of the European Central Bank.

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