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Wednesday, December 3, 2014

6 Charts That Illustrate Vladimir Putin's World of Pain

Faced with collapsing oil prices and sanctions from the west, the Russian economy is on the verge of going into recession. The ruble is collapsing, inflation is spiking, and the Russian Central Bank is depleting its reserves of foreign currency, limiting its ability to prop up its own currency.
Let's take a quick look at some charts that show the pain being inflicted on the Russian economy. 

First, the price of oil has dropped to its lowest in half a decade. This is a result of a slowing global economy, and booming production. Oil's slide recently accelerated when OPEC declined to limit production.

The reason for Putin's woes: falling oil prices
The reason for Putin's woes: falling oil prices

So this is bad news for Russia. Oil happens to be Russia's largest source of foreign revenue. The country's GDP is sliding and now its Economy Minister predicts a recession.  

The Russian GDP is at its lowest level in years and is expected to plunge further.
Bloomberg
The Russian GDP is at its lowest level in years and is expected to plunge further.

Much more immediately obvious, though, is the currency collapse that's already in motion. The value of the ruble against the dollar is collapsing. On Monday alone, the value dropped by 6 percent, the worst daily decline since 1998. 

The value of the ruble is collapsing.
Bloomberg
The value of the ruble is collapsing.

Meanwhile, the rate of inflation is spiking, which is a problem for the Russian Central Bank. If it tightens policy to reduce inflation, it will only inflict more harm on a weak economy. 

The rate of inflation is climbing.
Bloomberg
The rate of inflation is climbing.

At the same time, the Russian Central Bank is seeing its foreign currency reserves fade away. 

The Russian Central Bank is depleting its reserves of foreign currency and gold.
Bloomberg
The Russian Central Bank is depleting its reserves of foreign currency and gold.

So, how's the stock market doing? Well it depends on how you look. When priced in rubles, the Russian MICEX index is doing pretty well. But when priced in dollars, you can see things are almost back to their lows of the financial crisis.  

The Russian stock market, as measured in rubles (blue) and dollars (yellow)
Bloomberg
The Russian stock market, as measured in rubles (blue) and dollars (yellow)

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