Clinton Trumps Republican Rivals on Leadership, Vision for 2016
Former first lady, senator, and Secretary of State
Hillary Clinton would enter the presidential race with positive views of
her past experience and personal traits, making her a formidable
contender against lesser-known Republican rivals. Greater numbers of Americans view her as a strong leader, who has a
better vision for the future, shares their values, and empathizes with
their concerns, according to a new Bloomberg Politics Poll. Among the
Republicans tested against her, former Republican nominee Mitt Romney
has the best name recognition and strengths to challenge her standing as
this early stage in the 2016 race. Romney, however, has repeatedly said
he won't campaign for the presidency for a third time. READ FULL BLOOMBERG POLITICS POLL RESULTS With poll participants saying she is better than her potential
Republican opponents on these four qualities, including the
traditionally Republican strength of leadership, Clinton is positioned
quite differently than President Barack Obama was during his re-election
bid. In 2012, Romney won by 13 percentage points among voters who said
the quality that mattered most in deciding how they voted for president
was a candidate who "shares your values," by 23 points among those
looking for a "strong leader," and by nine percentage points among those
who prioritized a candidate with a "vision for the future," according
to the election's exit polls with voters that were collected by Edison
Research for the National Election Pool, a consortium of national media
outlets. For Obama, a 63-percentage-point lead among voters who most
valued a candidate who "cares about people like me" was a key attribute
that helped propel him to victory.
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“Her image and reputation with voters has been defined, and in some
ways redefined, by her service as Secretary of State, where voters saw
someone who was a strong leader in representing our country,” said Geoff
Garin, a Democratic polling expert who worked for Clinton’s
unsuccessful primary campaign against Obama. “If she runs, she comes to
this election in much better shape then she did in the 2008." While Clinton lacks Obama’s overwhelming empathy advantage, she's
better positioned two years before the election in every other
attribute. When respondents were asked which potential candidate did a
better job on each of four qualities, she runs seven to 20 points ahead
on leadership when pitted against former Florida Governor Jeb Bush, New
Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Kentucky
Senator Rand Paul, and Romney. Though Clinton has yet to provide a
detailed account of how she'd guide the nation as president, Americans
think she has more of a vision for the future than any in the Republican
field. When measured on that attribute, she leads Romney by 6 points,
Paul by 10 points, Bush by 15 points, Christie by 17 points, and Cruz by
21 points.
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A different story emerges when the potential presidential match-ups
are tested among what likely voters say they value most. Clinton lags
behind all the Republicans among likely voters who named “sharing your
values” as their top quality in selecting a candidate. One reason for
the shift is that a plurality–41 percent—of Republicans identified
"shared values" as their most important trait. Maryanna Preston, a
Florida clinical psychologist who favors Republican candidates, said she
found Clinton untrustworthy. “I would not want her running this
country,” she said. “She is a power-hungry woman wanting to be the first
woman president of the United States. I think she’s dangerous.” Still, in a general election showdown, Clinton wins against all five
potential Republican candidates among likely voters, though she never
breaks the 50 percent mark. Her margin is narrowest against Bush,
Christie, and Romney, with a six-percentage-point lead. She beats Paul
by eight points and Cruz by 13 points. Clinton is far better known than most of her possible Republican
challengers, with the exception of Romney. That familiarity, some
Republicans argue, makes her appear to hold a more formidable position
today. “She has 100 percent name ID. Among the potential candidates for
2016, Jeb Bush and Mitt Romney are the only ones who even come close,”
said Republican pollster Whit Ayres. According to the poll, just 6
percent of American say they're "not sure" whether they'd rank her
favorably or not, compared with 13 percent who said the same of Romney.
All of the other Republicans tested were not known well enough to be
rated by about a third or more of the respondents. “I would have been
stunned if any of the Republicans beat Clinton on any measure.” More than half–52 percent–of Americans have a favorable view of
Clinton, a drop from a high of 70 percent in December 2012, less than
two months before she left her post as Secretary of State and re-entered
the national, partisan political dialogue. That diplomatic background,
considered by some Republicans to be a point of weakness, is seen as
beneficial by a majority of Americans. More than two out of three view
her tenure as Secretary of State, marriage to former President Bill
Clinton, and, perhaps as an indication that Americans want an
experienced insider in the next president, her service in Washington, as
advantageous to Clinton. About six in ten say the same about her
previous presidential run and work in the Obama administration. "People
get all critical about, ‘oh, so and so‘s a career politician',” said
Barbara Rishaw, a deli clerk and self-identified “disillusioned
independent” in Nashville, Tenn. “On the other hand, wouldn’t you want
to hire someone for a job when they actually have some experience?”
One
show of weakness for Clinton: 52 percent viewed her ties to Wall Street
as a positive—a ranking that could provide an opening to a populist
primary challenger or an avenue for attacks by Republicans. The poll of 1,001 U.S. adults was conducted Dec. 3-5 by Selzer &
Co. of Des Moines, Iowa, and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.1
percentage points. Results based on the 753 likely voters in the 2016
election have a margin of error of plus or minus 3.6 percentage points.
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