SAN
FRANCISCO — It happened many weeks ago, but salesmen at a suburban
AT&T store here still vividly recall the customer who bought an Amazon Fire phone.
They remember her because they haven’t sold another Fire since.
Professional
reviews of the phone were mixed, but the ultimate arbiters — consumers —
decisively rejected it. At many companies, such an expensive and
high-profile stumble would prompt endless analysis, a deflated stock and
perhaps even questions about whether management was up to the task.
But Amazon is not like other companies.
Amazon’s
shares have not suffered much, if at all, from the Fire’s failure. Nor
is the phone likely to dominate analysts’ questions when Amazon releases
its third-quarter earnings Thursday afternoon.
The
phone is in the past, and Amazon is above all a story about the future,
about the glorious moment when the e-commerce giant will sell
everything, whether electronic or digital, to everybody. And so the
focus in the earnings report will be on Amazon’s huge investments in
trying to make that moment come true.
In
this scenario, Amazon will commission TV series and beam them to you to
watch on Amazon devices, as you nibble on popcorn delivered by Amazon
drones while choosing your next vacation from the Amazon ad network.
Building
an Amazon-centric world takes money, lots of it. The company announced
over the summer that it would invest $2 billion in India’s fledging
e-commerce market. And it paid $1 billion in cash for Twitch, a game-streaming site that did not exist three years ago.
Even
with Amazon likely to hit $100 billion a year in revenue in 2015, it is
not throwing off all the cash it needs. Last month the company revealed
it had taken out a $2 billion line of credit with Bank of America for
“working capital, capital expenditures, acquisitions and other corporate
purposes.”
Meanwhile,
losses are mounting. Three months ago, analysts thought the company
would lose 7 cents a share in the third quarter. Then, after Amazon
ratcheted down expectations, the estimated loss swelled tenfold, to 74
cents.
It is getting to be a familiar story. The last time Amazon made a profit in the third quarter was in 2011.
Other
media companies look at Amazon with a certain wonderment. “My report
card is based on profits,” the CBS chief Les Moonves said at a
conference last summer. “I think Jeff Bezos has a much easier way of
life than I do.”
Analysts
are generally enthusiastic. Cowen and Company said this week that it
expected Amazon to lose “only” 57 cents a share. Colin Gillis of BGC
Partners, usually somewhat skeptical of Amazon, issued an upbeat note
that focused on the potential of the company to use its various hardware
for an advertising network.
“We
are actually mildly positive on the potential of the current investment
cycle as Amazon builds an ecosystem with its Kindle readers (success),
tablets (mild success), App store (mild success), Fire TV (limited
traction but a good product) and phone (failure, priced too high and
limited distribution),” Mr. Gillis wrote. He noted that the retailer
knows where its tens of millions of customers live, what they like and
how they consume.
Michael
Pachter of Wedbush Securities was a mild dissenter, citing “a variety
of customer experience enhancements” that will soak up potential
profits. These enhancements include a streaming music service recently
introduced by Amazon. It is free for Amazon Prime shipping members.
Content spending on video and music will total $2 billion this year and $2.5 billion next year, Mr. Pachter wrote.
Free
things make enrolling in Prime more attractive, and that inspires
people to buy more, which is how Amazon is really expected to make
money. But not soon. Analysts see a loss for 2014 before a profit of
$1.91 a share in 2015, according to Yahoo Finance.
Unless
there are unexpected bumps. Amazon, in keeping with its usual
reticence, does not break out numbers for Amazon Web Services, its cloud
service. Instead it lumps it into a category called “other.”
For
the last two quarters, “other” growth abruptly leveled off. Amazon was
the pioneer in cloud computing, but it faces increased competition from
Google and Microsoft, both of which have deeper pockets. Microsoft said
its commercial cloud revenue has doubled year-over-year for the last
four quarters.
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