'This Is a Very Serious Event': Bermuda Takes Direct Hit From Hurricane Gonzalo

This image provided by NASA shows Hurricane Gonzalo taken at 2:45 p.m. EDT on Oct. 16 by NASA's Aqua satellite.


Update: 6 p.m. ET Bermuda is officially in the northern eyewall of Hurricane Gonzalo, where some of the strongest winds and heaviest rains are located. The Bermuda airport reported a wind gust to 79 miles per hour, and a sustained wind of 83 miles per hour with a gust to 112 miles per hour were reported at Commissioner's Point, Bermuda, which is an elevated location. Higher elevations on the island will experience stronger winds.
Update: 5 p.m. ET: Hurricane Gonzalo is 50 miles away from making landfall on the island of Bermuda, where winds have already gusted as high as 101 miles per hour, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. The storm has continued to weaken slightly, but remains a Category 3 storm with maximum sustained winds of 115 miles per hour.
Update: 2 p.m. ET: The core of Hurricane Gonzalo, where the highest winds and waves are located, is now moving through Bermuda. Winds have picked up to tropical storm force, and should begin to edge up to hurricane force (74 miles per hour or higher) by 5 p.m. local time, which is 4 p.m. ET. The National Hurricane Center says the storm is beginning to weaken but will still be a Category 3 hurricane when it moves over the island.
The storm is the strongest to hit Bermuda since 2003's Hurricane Fabian, which produced a 10 foot storm surge, in addition to widespread wind damage.
Hurricane Gonzalo is bringing damaging winds and a life-threatening storm surge to Bermuda on Friday afternoon. As a Category 3 storm, Hurricane Gonzalo is the biggest hurricane threat the small island has faced since at least 2003, and if the storm's eye passes directly over the island as it appears it will, it could become the strongest storm to make landfall there since the 1920s.
A hurricane warning is in effect for Bermuda, where tropical storm force winds are expected to begin within hours, and a five to seven hour period of hurricane force winds of greater than 74 miles per hour buffeting the island starting in the afternoon on Friday.
At 2 p.m. ET, Gonzalo was centered about 100 miles south-southwest of Bermuda, packing top sustained winds of 125 mph. This makes it a Category 3 storm, down from Category 4 on Friday morning.

Satellite imagery of Hurricane Gonzalo as it approaches Gonzalo.

Image: NOAA

Regardless of any such weakening, the storm will be capable of causing widespread damage throughout the island, which is an island of about 70,000 people off the East Coast of the U.S. Bermuda is a popular resort destination. A major threat is the storm's surge of water that will pile up along the coast, which the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is warning will be "dangerous and life-threatening."

Radar image of Hurricane Gonzalo at 4:50 p.m. ET, showing the eye nearing the island (plus sign at the center).

Image: Bermuda Weather Service/Brian McNoldy

Storm surges are caused by a storm's winds, which push ocean water toward the coast, as well as a storm's low atmospheric pressure, which also causes water levels to increase. The Bermuda Weather Service is predicting seas of up to 40 feet with dangerous waves, swell and surge in advance of a 5 p.m. high tide
As the storm has moved north-northeast, its wind field has expanded, going from a radius of hurricane force winds of around 40 miles from the storm center to a radius of 60 miles. This means that even if the storm were to miss making landfall in Bermuda, hurricane force winds are still likely.

Computer model simulation of the winds around Hurricane Gonzalo and near Bermuda (circled, with geographic coordinates in lower left).

Image: http://earth.nullschool.net

Bermuda's only airport, which is surrounded by water, increased the amount of departing flights on Thursday in an effort to evacuate the island. The prime minister urged those still there and living in low-lying areas to consider moving to higher ground as Bermuda braced for Gonzalo's approach.
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This hurricane is a large storm, and we should expect at least 24 hours of storm-force winds

This hurricane is a large storm, and we should expect at least 24 hours of storm-force winds," Premier Michael Dunkley said. Forecasters said Gonzalo was moving to the north-northeast at 15 mph, and the eye of the storm was expected near Bermuda by Friday afternoon or evening. The Bermuda Weather Service has said the eye could pass within 29 miles of the island — close enough to be considered a direct hit.
The hurricane's approach comes days after Tropical Storm Fay damaged homes and knocked down trees and power lines in Bermuda, with 1,500 homes still without power late Thursday. Bermuda's residents have stripped stores of emergency supplies in recent days as they battened down for Gonzalo. Bermuda woke up on Friday morning to light rain and dark skies.
"This is a very serious event," Dave Fox, a public affairs officer for the Bermuda government, said in a recent telephone interview. He added that the government opened a shelter in a high school but noted that Bermuda is known for structures that can withstand heavy storms.
The last major hurricane to strike Bermuda was Fabian in 2003, a Category 3 storm that killed four people. That storm caused at least $300 million in damage, which gives a rough estimate of what Gonzalo may cause.
The capital appeared nearly deserted late Thursday as stores boarded up windows. The businesses that remained open reported a steady stream of customers grabbing up essentials at the last minute. Gas stations also reported brisk business. Authorities also evacuated two hotels along Bermuda's southern coast are planning to close a causeway that links the eastern end of Bermuda with the mainland.
"I was here for Hurricane Fabian in 2003, so I'm not taking any chances this time," said Susan Black, a retiree who filled her car and several gas cans Thursday.
Gonzalo swept by the eastern Caribbean earlier this week, claiming one life in the Dutch territory of St. Maarten. Large ocean swells continued to affect parts of the Virgin Islands, the northern coasts of Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic, parts of the Bahamas and the U.S. East Coast from North Carolina southward.